Updated: January 21, 2026
Mortgage rates moved higher today as global political issues unsettled financial markets. Concerns around new tariffs and rising international tensions pushed government bond yields to their highest level in five months. Since mortgage rates closely follow these bonds, borrowing costs increased for buyers and homeowners across the U.S.
Even with today’s jump, rates are still much lower than they were last year, which keeps many buyers and refinancers interested.
Today’s Average Mortgage Rates – January 21, 2026
Here’s a simple look at where mortgage rates stand today based on national averages from major lenders.
Purchase Mortgage Rates
- 30-year fixed: 6.05% to 6.20%
- 15-year fixed: 5.50% to 5.65%
- 20-year fixed: Around 6.12%
- 5/1 ARM: About 6.34%
- 7/1 ARM: Around 6.42%
VA Loan Rates
- 30-year VA loan: About 5.54%
- 15-year VA loan: About 5.24%
- 5/1 VA ARM: Around 5.18%
Refinance Rates
- 30-year fixed refinance: 6.50% to 6.54%
- 15-year fixed refinance: 5.79% to 6.00%
Rates can vary based on credit score, down payment, loan size, and lender, so these numbers are averages.
Why Did Mortgage Rates Go Up Today?
Mortgage rates increased mainly because of new global political concerns. President Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland, along with strong tariff threats against countries that oppose the move, caused uncertainty in the markets.
Investors reacted by selling government bonds, which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level in five months. Since mortgage rates closely track this yield, home loan rates moved higher as well.
Compared to yesterday:
- The 30-year fixed rate rose by about 0.15%
- The 15-year fixed rate increased by around 0.14%
Bond markets have been volatile as investors try to assess risk in an uncertain global environment.
How Do Today’s Rates Compare to Last Year?
Even though rates rose today, they are still much better than they were one year ago.
In January 2025, many 30-year mortgage rates were above 7%. Today, rates are nearly a full percentage point lower.
For the average homebuyer, that difference can mean:
- Roughly $300 to $350 less per month
- Thousands of dollars saved every year
- Better affordability and borrowing power
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.06% as of January 15, 2026. That was the lowest level seen since September 2022, showing how much the market has improved compared to 2023 and early 2024.
Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2026?
Experts don’t fully agree, but most expect rates to stay around current levels for much of the year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects:
- 30-year mortgage rates to hover near 6.4% through most of 2026
- Rates around 6.3% in 2027
Fannie Mae forecasts:
- Rates staying above 6% for most of 2026
- A possible dip to around 5.9% by late 2026
- Average rates near 5.9% in 2027
Most experts believe the ultra-low mortgage rates of 2% to 3% seen in 2020 and 2021 are unlikely to return anytime soon unless the economy faces a major crisis.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home?
For many buyers, today’s market looks far better than it did over the past two years.
With rates around 6%, monthly payments are noticeably lower than they were when rates were above 7%. That makes buying more realistic for many households.
Buyers should:
- Compare offers from multiple lenders
- Lock in a rate if they find a good deal
- Act quickly, as rates can change daily
Research from Freddie Mac shows that shopping around can save buyers $600 to $1,200 per year.
Does Refinancing Make Sense Right Now?
Refinancing can still make sense, especially for homeowners with mortgage rates in the mid-7% range or higher.
Refinancing may be worth it if:
- You can lower your rate by at least 0.5% to 1%
- You plan to stay in your home long enough to recover closing costs
- Your credit score or income has improved
- You want to move from an adjustable rate loan to a fixed rate
Even though refinance rates are slightly higher than purchase rates, many homeowners can still benefit.
What’s Influencing Mortgage Rates Right Now?
Several major factors are shaping the mortgage market in early 2026.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in late 2025, lowering them by a total of 0.75%. These cuts helped bring mortgage rates down, but future decisions depend on inflation and economic data.
Treasury Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield plays a huge role in mortgage pricing. Today’s jump in yields directly pushed mortgage rates higher.
Housing Market Activity
Lower rates over recent months have increased mortgage applications. This suggests stronger demand heading into the spring home-buying season.
Economic Data
Inflation, job growth, wages, and overall economic strength all affect how the Fed and investors respond, which then impacts mortgage rates.
Understanding Different Mortgage Types
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
This is the most popular option. Payments stay the same for the entire loan term.
It offers stability and lower monthly payments, but you pay more interest over time.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage
This loan has lower interest rates and helps you build equity faster. Monthly payments are higher, but you save a lot on interest and pay off the home sooner.
Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
ARMs start with a fixed rate for a few years, then adjust later. They work best for buyers who plan to move or refinance before the rate changes.
They offer lower starting payments but come with more risk if rates rise.
How to Get the Best Mortgage Rate
Improving your credit score, saving for a larger down payment, and comparing several lenders can make a big difference. Even small changes can lower your rate and save you thousands over the life of the loan.
Getting pre-approved also helps, especially in competitive housing markets.
Why Rates Differ by Location
Mortgage rates can vary depending on where you live. Local housing demand, lender competition, property taxes, and insurance costs all play a role.
That’s why two buyers with similar credit profiles can receive different rates in different states or cities.
Mortgage Market Outlook for 2026
The housing market is expected to improve through 2026, especially during the spring and summer months. Key things to watch include:
- Federal Reserve decisions
- Inflation and jobs data
- Global political developments
- Housing inventory and home prices
While short-term rate swings are likely, the overall trend looks more stable than in recent years.
Final Takeaway
Mortgage rates rose today due to global uncertainty, but they remain close to multi-year lows. With 30-year fixed rates near 6%, today’s market is far better than the 7%+ environment seen last year.
If you’re buying or refinancing, today’s rates still offer a real opportunity. Instead of trying to predict the perfect moment, focus on what fits your budget, goals, and long-term plans.
Mortgage rates vary daily, so knowledge and good decisions matter a lot more than timing the exact bottom.
Disclosure: Rates are subject to fluctuation and can vary based on the borrower, location, down payment, discount points, and other factors. The rates above are national average rates and may not be reflective of the rate you will receive. As always, consult a licensed mortgage professional before making any financial decisions.
Sources: Bankrate, Zillow, Freddie Mac, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Mortgage News Daily, CBS News
